Quantitative basis for planning the costs of medical care in haemato-oncology: analyses and predictions for 2017 – South Moravian Region

Prepared by a team of authors led by:

RNDr. J. Mužík, Ph.D.; RNDr. O. Májek, Ph.D.; RNDr. Denisa Malúšková; RNDr. D. Klimeš, Ph.D.; Ing. P. Brabec, Ph.D.; Mgr. Z. Bortlíček; RNDr. T. Pavlík, Ph.D.; doc. RNDr. L. Dušek, Ph.D.

Summary

This report summarises analyses of available population-based data on the Czech Republic, aiming to predict incidence and prevalence rates of patients with selected haematological malignancies for the year 2017. These predictions are based on population-based epidemiological data (Czech National Cancer Registry, see also www.svod.cz), demographic data on the Czech Republic including demographic projections, and data on causes of death. Population-based predictions of incidence and prevalence rates have been adjusted by survival probability models, making it possible to predict the number of patients likely to undergo a certain stage of treatment in 2017. The predictions are available for the entire population of the Czech Republic, for individual regions of the country.


A. OVERVIEW OF DATA SOURCES AND THE METHODOLOGY OF ASSESSMENT

Methodology and definition of data sources are described in a separate article.


B. PREDICTED CANCER RATES FOR THE YEAR 2017

This section of the report provides the estimates of incidence, prevalence and the number of patients who will probably undergo treatment with selected drugs in 2017.

Predicted overall incidence rates for the year 2017

All malignancies reported to the CNCR database are considered for the purpose of predictions. 90% confidence intervals (in brackets) are provided for all estimates.

Predicted incidence rates for the year 2017 – South Moravian Region

Diagnosis

Incidence
(90% confidence interval)

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL)

36
(29; 45)

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL)

193
(175; 212)

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL)

61
(51; 72)

Follicular lymphoma

28
(21; 36)

Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL)

13
(9; 19)

Multiple myeloma (MM) and plasmocytic neoplasms (PN)

67
(57; 79)

Multiple myeloma (MM)

64
(54; 76)

Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL)

74
(63; 86)

Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML)

15
(10; 21)

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML)

51
(42; 61)

Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL)

10
(6; 15)

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS)

32
(25; 41)

II. Predicted overall prevalence rates for the year 2017

Estimates of the overall prevalence include the estimated numbers of newly diagnosed cancers in 2017, and the estimated numbers of living cancer patients who were diagnosed and treated in previous years (calculated according to survival probability models). 90% confidence intervals (in brackets) are provided for all estimates.

Predicted prevalence rates for the year 2017 – South Moravian Region

Diagnosis

Prevalence
(90% confidence interval)

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL)

804
(768; 842)

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL)

1,597
(1,546; 1,649)

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL)

369
(345; 395)

Follicular lymphoma

271
(250; 293)

Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL)

80
(69; 93)

Multiple myeloma (MM) and plasmocytic neoplasms (PN)

423
(397; 451)

Multiple myeloma (MM)

394
(369; 421)

Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL)

589
(558; 621)

Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML)

130
(116; 146)

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML)

173
(156; 191)

Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL)

213
(195; 233)

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS)

132
(118; 148)

III. Predicted numbers of patients indicated for treatment with individual drugs for the year 2017

This section provides the estimates of incidence and prevalence of patients who will be probably treated with individual drugs in 2017. The estimates are based on adjustments of predicted incidence and prevalence rates, which were made upon data on reported treatment reimbursed by health insurance companies.

Predicted numbers for the year 2017 – South Moravian Region

Drug

Number of patients with newly initiated treatment

Total number of treated patients

Bendamustine
(CLL, HNL, MM)

85
(73; 98)

98
(86; 112)

Azacitidine
(MDS, CMML, AML)

11
(7; 17)

19
(14; 26)

Rituximab
(NHL, CLL)

198
(180; 217)

349
(325; 374)

Imatinib
(CML, Ph+ ALL, MDS/MPS)

12
(8; 18)

85
(73; 98)

Dasatinib
(CML, Ph+ ALL)

2
(1; 5)

16
(11; 22)

Nilotinib
(CML)

8
(5; 13)

42
(34; 52)

Bortezomib
(MM, MCL)

69
(59; 81)

135
(120; 151)

Thalidomide
(MM)

10
(6; 15)

12
(8; 18)

Lenalidomide
(MM, MDS, MCL)

50
(41; 60)

90
(78; 103)